This paper presents a probabilistic framework to include the effects of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty sources in coupled multidisciplinary analysis (MDA). A likelihood-based decoupling approach has been previously developed for probabilistic analysis of multidisciplinary systems, but only with aleatory uncertainty in the inputs. This paper extends this approach to incorporate the effects of epistemic uncertainty arising from data uncertainty and model errors. Data uncertainty regarding input variables (due to sparse and interval data) is included through parametric or nonparametric distributions using the principle of likelihood. Model error is included in MDA through an auxiliary variable approach based on the probability integral transform. In the presence of natural variability, data uncertainty, and model uncertainty, the proposed methodology is employed to estimate the probability density functions (PDFs) of coupling variables as well as the subsystem and system level outputs that satisfy interdisciplinary compatibility. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA), which has previously considered only aleatory inputs and feedforward or monolithic problems, is extended in this paper to quantify the contribution of model uncertainty in feedback-coupled MDA by exploiting the auxiliary variable approach. The proposed methodology is demonstrated using a mathematical MDA problem and an electronic packaging application example featuring coupled thermal and electrical subsystem analyses. The results indicate that the proposed methodology can effectively quantify the uncertainty in MDA while maintaining computational efficiency.
Skip Nav Destination
Article navigation
February 2015
Research-Article
Stochastic Multidisciplinary Analysis Under Epistemic Uncertainty
Chen Liang,
Chen Liang
Department of Civil and Environmental
Engineering,
Engineering,
Vanderbilt University
,Nashville, TN 37235
Search for other works by this author on:
Sankaran Mahadevan,
Sankaran Mahadevan
1
Department of Civil and Environmental
Engineering,
e-mail: sankaran.mahadevan@vanderbilt.edu
Engineering,
Vanderbilt University
,Nashville, TN 37235
e-mail: sankaran.mahadevan@vanderbilt.edu
1Corresponding author.
Search for other works by this author on:
Shankar Sankararaman
Shankar Sankararaman
SGT, Inc.
,Moffett Field, CA 94035
Search for other works by this author on:
Chen Liang
Department of Civil and Environmental
Engineering,
Engineering,
Vanderbilt University
,Nashville, TN 37235
Sankaran Mahadevan
Department of Civil and Environmental
Engineering,
e-mail: sankaran.mahadevan@vanderbilt.edu
Engineering,
Vanderbilt University
,Nashville, TN 37235
e-mail: sankaran.mahadevan@vanderbilt.edu
Shankar Sankararaman
SGT, Inc.
,Moffett Field, CA 94035
1Corresponding author.
Contributed by the Design Automation Committee of ASME for publication in the JOURNAL OF MECHANICAL DESIGN. Manuscript received March 8, 2014; final manuscript received November 12, 2014; published online December 11, 2014. Assoc. Editor: Christopher Mattson.
J. Mech. Des. Feb 2015, 137(2): 021404 (12 pages)
Published Online: February 1, 2015
Article history
Received:
March 8, 2014
Revision Received:
November 12, 2014
Online:
December 11, 2014
Citation
Liang, C., Mahadevan, S., and Sankararaman, S. (February 1, 2015). "Stochastic Multidisciplinary Analysis Under Epistemic Uncertainty." ASME. J. Mech. Des. February 2015; 137(2): 021404. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4029221
Download citation file:
Get Email Alerts
Related Articles
Comprehensive Approach to Verification and Validation of CFD Simulations—Part 1: Methodology and Procedures
J. Fluids Eng (December,2001)
Learning an Eddy Viscosity Model Using Shrinkage and Bayesian Calibration: A Jet-in-Crossflow Case Study
ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Part B (March,2018)
Comprehensive Approach to Verification and Validation of CFD Simulations—Part 2: Application for Rans Simulation of a Cargo/Container Ship
J. Fluids Eng (December,2001)
Robust Input Shaper Control Design for Parameter Variations in Flexible Structures
J. Dyn. Sys., Meas., Control (March,2000)
Related Proceedings Papers
Related Chapters
Sandia Heat Flux Gauge Thermal Response and Uncertainty Models
Thermal Measurements: The Foundation of Fire Standards
Understanding The Systematic Error of a Mineral-Insulated, Metal Sheathed (MIMS) Thermocouple Attached to a Heated Flat Surface
Thermal Measurements: The Foundation of Fire Standards
Constrained Noninformative Priors with Uncertain Constraints: A Hierarchical Simulation Approach (PSAM-0437)
Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management (PSAM)