Fatigue cracking is a key type of defect for liquid pipelines, and managing fatigue cracks has been a top priority and a big challenge for liquid pipeline operators. The existing inline inspection (ILI) tools for pipeline defect evaluation have large fatigue crack measurement uncertainties. Furthermore, the current physics-based methods are mainly used for fatigue crack growth prediction, where the same or a small range of fixed model parameters is used for all pipes. They result in uncertainty that is managed through the use of conservative safety factors such as adding depth uncertainty to the measured depth in deciding integrity management and risk mitigation strategies. In this study, an integrated approach is proposed for pipeline fatigue crack growth prediction utilizing ILI data including consideration of crack depth measurement uncertainty. This approach is done by integrating the physical models, including the stress analysis models, the crack growth model governed by the Paris’ law, and the ILI data. With the proposed integrated approach, the finite element (FE) model of a cracked pipe is built and the stress analysis is performed. ILI data are utilized to update the uncertain physical parameters for the individual pipe being considered so that a more accurate fatigue crack growth prediction can be achieved. Time-varying loading conditions are considered in the proposed integrated method by using rainflow counting method. The proposed integrated prognostics approach is compared with the existing physics-based method using examples based on simulated data. Field data provided by a Canadian pipeline operator are also employed for the validation of the proposed method. The examples and case studies in this paper demonstrate the limitations of the existing physics-based method, and the promise of the proposed method for achieving accurate fatigue crack growth prediction as continuous improvement of ILI technologies further reduces ILI measurement uncertainty.
Skip Nav Destination
Article navigation
June 2018
Research-Article
An Integrated Prognostics Approach for Pipeline Fatigue Crack Growth Prediction Utilizing Inline Inspection Data
Mingjiang Xie,
Mingjiang Xie
Department of Mechanical Engineering,
University of Alberta,
Edmonton, AB T6G 2R3, Canada
University of Alberta,
Edmonton, AB T6G 2R3, Canada
Search for other works by this author on:
Steven Bott,
Steven Bott
Enbridge Liquid Pipelines,
Edmonton, AB T5J 0T6, Canada
Edmonton, AB T5J 0T6, Canada
Search for other works by this author on:
Aaron Sutton,
Aaron Sutton
Enbridge Liquid Pipelines,
Edmonton, AB T5J 0T6, Canada
Edmonton, AB T5J 0T6, Canada
Search for other works by this author on:
Alex Nemeth,
Alex Nemeth
Enbridge Liquid Pipelines,
Edmonton, AB T5J 0T6, Canada
Edmonton, AB T5J 0T6, Canada
Search for other works by this author on:
Zhigang Tian
Zhigang Tian
Department of Mechanical Engineering,
University of Alberta,
Edmonton, AB T6G 2R3, Canada
University of Alberta,
Edmonton, AB T6G 2R3, Canada
Search for other works by this author on:
Mingjiang Xie
Department of Mechanical Engineering,
University of Alberta,
Edmonton, AB T6G 2R3, Canada
University of Alberta,
Edmonton, AB T6G 2R3, Canada
Steven Bott
Enbridge Liquid Pipelines,
Edmonton, AB T5J 0T6, Canada
Edmonton, AB T5J 0T6, Canada
Aaron Sutton
Enbridge Liquid Pipelines,
Edmonton, AB T5J 0T6, Canada
Edmonton, AB T5J 0T6, Canada
Alex Nemeth
Enbridge Liquid Pipelines,
Edmonton, AB T5J 0T6, Canada
Edmonton, AB T5J 0T6, Canada
Zhigang Tian
Department of Mechanical Engineering,
University of Alberta,
Edmonton, AB T6G 2R3, Canada
University of Alberta,
Edmonton, AB T6G 2R3, Canada
1Corresponding author.
Contributed by the Pressure Vessel and Piping Division of ASME for publication in the JOURNAL OF PRESSURE VESSEL TECHNOLOGY. Manuscript received November 11, 2017; final manuscript received March 16, 2018; published online April 20, 2018. Assoc. Editor: Oreste S. Bursi.
J. Pressure Vessel Technol. Jun 2018, 140(3): 031702 (10 pages)
Published Online: April 20, 2018
Article history
Received:
November 11, 2017
Revised:
March 16, 2018
Citation
Xie, M., Bott, S., Sutton, A., Nemeth, A., and Tian, Z. (April 20, 2018). "An Integrated Prognostics Approach for Pipeline Fatigue Crack Growth Prediction Utilizing Inline Inspection Data." ASME. J. Pressure Vessel Technol. June 2018; 140(3): 031702. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4039780
Download citation file:
Get Email Alerts
Constraint Effect and Crack-Tip Plastic Zone of the Pipe With Internal Inclined Surface Cracks Under External Pressure
J. Pressure Vessel Technol (April 2025)
Research on the Accelerated Life Test Method for Gaskets and the Verification of the Accuracy of the Life Prediction
J. Pressure Vessel Technol (June 2025)
Optimization of High-Vapor Pressure Condensate Pipeline Commissioning Schemes in Large Uplift Environments
J. Pressure Vessel Technol (June 2025)
Technical Basis for Revising the Fatigue Crack Growth Rates for Ferritic Steels in the ASME Code Section XI
J. Pressure Vessel Technol (June 2025)
Related Articles
Implications of Inspection Updating on System Fatigue Reliability of Offshore Structures
J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng (August,2000)
Reliability Assessment of Failure Assessment Diagram Based Fitness for Service Procedure Including the Effect of Bias in Modeling
J. Pressure Vessel Technol (October,2017)
Remaining Lives of Fatigue Crack Growths for Pipes With Subsurface Flaws and Subsurface-to-Surface Flaw Proximity Rules
J. Pressure Vessel Technol (October,2016)
Crude Oil Corrosion Fatigue of L485MB Pipeline Steel
J. Pressure Vessel Technol (October,2015)
Related Proceedings Papers
Related Chapters
Overview of Section XI Stipulations
Companion Guide to the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, Volume 2, Third Edition
On the Process of Subsurface Fatigue Crack Initiation in Ti-6Al-4V
Fatigue Mechanisms